28.08.2009 - dvb-Presseservice

Janus-Strategen sehen strukturellen Wandel auf US-Rentenmarkt

Seit den Interventionen der US-Regierung hat sich der US-Rentenmarkt tiefgreifend verändert. Diese Meinung vertreten Jonathan Coleman und Gibson Smith, beide Co-Chief Investment Officers des US-Asset Managers Janus, in ihrem jüngsten Investorenbrief. "Die Spreads zwischen zwei wichtigen Anleihesegmenten, Agency Notes, also Anleihen von US-Institutionen wie Freddie Mac, einerseits und herkömmlichen US-Staatsanleihen (Treasuries) andererseits konvergieren", begründen Coleman und Smith ihren Standpunkt. Unternehmensanleihen böten nunmehr deutlich mehr Potenzial als Agency Notes. In der aktuellen Marktphase, in der die Zahl der Ausfälle noch zunimmt,  sei es jedoch wichtig, durch solides Risikomanagement und genaue Analyse der emittierenden Unternehmen, die Spreu vom Weizen zu trennen. Anders als viele Asset Manager wendet Janus auch für Renteninvestments eine fundamentale Bottom-up-Analyse an.

Angesichts der jüngsten positiven Entwicklungen auf den Kapitalmärkten warnen die beiden CIOs vor verfrühtem Enthusiasmus: Der schwache US-Arbeitsmarkt belaste immer noch die Konsumenten, von denen die wirtschafltiche Entwicklung der USA in hohem Maße abhängt.

Den vollständigen Investorenbrief finden Sie unten.

Herr Martin Wiesheu
Tel.: +49 221 91 28 87-20
Fax: +49 221 912887-77
E-Mail: martin.wiesheu@ergo-komm.de

Janus Capital Group Inc. (JNS)
100 Fillmore Street
80206 Denver

Market Perspective from Janus Co-Chief Investment Officers

Second Quarter 2009

To Our Clients:

The rebound in global markets that began in late March continued through the second quarter of 2009 amid signs the world’s financial system and global economies were stabilising. Through the end of June, the S&P 500® Index was more than 35% above its 12-year low hit in early March while the MSCI EAFE® Index and the MSCI EMF® (Emerging Markets) Index, gained more than 30% and 42% in local currency terms, respectively, over the same period.

In our view, the recent stabilisation reflects a healthy period of digestion for the markets. Market sentiment has recovered from a period of extreme pessimism and heightened risk aversion, helping overall equity valuations to normalise. Meanwhile, corporate credit spreads continued to narrow from the historically elevated levels reached late last year as credit market liquidity improved and the flight-to-quality trade into U.S. Treasuries eased.

More recently, financial markets have consolidated some of their gains amid weak employment and mixed manufacturing data in the U.S. This trend has sparked investor concern that a near-term economic recovery may be short-lived or fail to materialise. We think the recent broad equity market rally is more a reflection of the growing view that the environment may not be getting any worse than it is a prelude to an imminent economic recovery. While we are cautious on the economic outlook, we view the consolidation in the market as healthy given the strong run stocks have had off of first quarter lows.

At this point, we believe the market is reasonably priced with many companies offering attractive valuations. We think the key to success going forward, therefore, will be dependent largely on security selection. As fundamental researchers, our goal is to avoid those companies that we think will ultimately fail to emerge successfully from market turmoil and attempt to identify those companies going through positive fundamental transition. We believe the current environment provides us with a strong opportunity to demonstrate the benefits of our research-intensive approach in both the equity and fixed income markets.

Economy stabilizing, but still in the early stages

As we’ve stated in past communications, the stock market has historically strengthened as a precursor to a potential economic recovery. While we believe this relationship still holds, the timing of such a recovery remains uncertain. The labor market in the U.S. and other nations is still quite weak. U.S. unemployment is likely to get worse before it gets better and wages have been declining. This is a troublesome trend that we think is likely to keep near-term pressure on the U.S. consumer.

In addition, consumer spending continues to retrench, while savings rates continue to increase. As consumers pay down debt and bolster savings in an attempt to improve their personal financial situations, spending will likely continue to suffer. Adding to this pressure, in our view, is a continued weakness in consumer credit creation. Credit is not as readily available as it has been in the past and the overall appetite for it is not as strong. As a result, we could be facing a secular and meaningful change in the spending and savings habits of the U.S. consumer. While this may be a plus over the long term, it could be a headwind for a sharp, immediate and sustainable near-term economic recovery.

On a positive note, the rate of decline in consumer spending has slowed and real-time surveys in manufacturing have shown improvement from late 2008 bottoms, suggesting that key economic indicators may be stabilising. Furthermore, the healing process within the financial system continues. Some banks have paid back TARP[1][1] money and businesses have been able to roll over debt and raise additional capital by going to the credit and equity markets, something that was nearly impossible to do at the height of the crisis. While there is still the potential for another shock to the system, we have seen indications that the crisis of confidence has abated. CIT Group’s recent challenges represent a good litmus test for the health of the financial system in our view. This bank holding company may still have to file for bankruptcy protection, but private creditors have shown interest in providing capital, which we believe is an encouraging sign.

Changing environment in corporate credit

Over the past several months, we have seen a sharp decline in the liquidity premium in corporate credit, accompanied by an increased appetite for risk assets. While declining premiums have effectively “lifted all boats” in the short-term, we do not expect this trend to continue going forward. Rather, we believe that quality security selection will matter going forward.

In addition, we believe recent government intervention has spawned a structural shift within the fixed income markets that favors the credit markets as a source of alpha generation. More specifically, the yield difference (or spread) between agency mortgages and agency debt, two large segments within fixed income, to equivalent U.S. Treasuries has essentially converged, offering little relative value in our opinion. Comparatively speaking, we believe the yields on corporate credit relative to these government-related segments offer considerable value, but we believe that individual security selection and proper risk management will be vital in determining success in this area. While we have always been a proponent of fundamental, bottom-up credit analysis given the asymmetric risk of credit investing, we think credit markets are likely in the early stages of a rising default cycle and that a focus on credit analysis will provide the most compelling opportunities for generating alpha in the new environment.

Looking ahead

The strong and broad rebound in global equity markets during the second-quarter of 2009 took many investors by surprise. In a number of markets, low quality names performed as strong, if not stronger, than some higher quality companies. This was true for corporate credit as well. While this is to be expected with any sharp reversal to the upside, we are not convinced that this can continue, particularly if the global economy sputters along.

Government intervention and U.S. Federal Reserve actions aimed at healing the financial system have generally worked, though the financial system still has more healing to do in our view. Meanwhile, the economy has stabilised and we think the worst-case scenario has been taken off the table. While the timing of an economic recovery remains uncertain in our opinion, we believe quality security selection is going to matter and that there are attractive opportunities in both equity and corporate credit for investment managers like Janus that employ a bottom-up fundamental research process.

Throughout this challenging period for the markets and investors, we have maintained our focus on intense, fundamental research and have continued to deliver strong relative long-term results to our clients. Janus-managed equity mutual funds continue to outperform the majority of peers with 61%, 88% and 82% of equity mutual funds ranking in the top half of their Lipper categories on a one-, three and five-year total return basis, respectively, as of June 30, 2009.

While the road to full recovery may still be a long-one, we continue to believe a balanced long-term strategy may provide the best opportunity for long-term success for our investors, and we are committed to continue delivering long-term performance on your behalf.

We thank you for your business and your continued confidence in Janus.


Jonathan Coleman
Co-Chief Investment Officer
Portfolio Manager

Gibson Smith
Co-Chief Investment Officer
Portfolio Manager

The opinions are those of the authors as of June 30, 2009 and are subject to change at any time due to changes in market or economic conditions. The comments should not be construed as a recommendation of individual holdings or market sectors, but as an illustration of broader themes. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

All current and potential holdings in Janus products are subject to risks that individuals need to address.

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A Fund’s portfolio may differ significantly from the securities held in an index. Indices are unmanaged and not available for direct investment; therefore, their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with active management of an actual portfolio.

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RC-0809(11)1109 Europe PR

[1][1] Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) allows the United States Department of the Treasury to purchase or insure up to $700 billion of "troubled" assets. "Troubled assets" are defined as "(A) residential or commercial mortgages and any securities, obligations, or other instruments that are based on or related to such mortgages, that in each case was originated or issued on or before March 14, 2008, the purchase of which the Secretary determines promotes financial market stability; and (B) any other financial instrument that the Secretary, after consultation with the Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, determines the purchase of which is necessary to promote financial market stability, but only upon transmittal of such determination, in writing, to the appropriate committees of Congress.